Curtailment Analysis

We possess a strong track record in executing curtailment analyses, offering vital insights into grid constraints and the financial implications of curtailment for both onshore and offshore projects. Our services extend from granular analysis of historical outage data to sophisticated predictive modelling, ensuring comprehensive curtailment strategies.

Our team excels in interpreting complex data sets and translating them into actionable strategies. By integrating information from National Asset Fault Incident Reporting Scheme (NAFIRS), Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC) registers, and other relevant databases, we provide a robust projection of curtailment levels. These projections are crucial for evaluating the expected energy yield and the financial performance of power generation assets.

In offering curtailment analysis, we undertake:

  1. Inter-trip Outage Analysis – We meticulously analyze past outages, distinguishing between singular and recurrent events to refine curtailment projections. Our approach ensures that overlapping outages are uniquely accounted for, presenting a realistic picture of potential downtimes.
  2. ANM and LMS Curtailment Analysis – Leveraging half-hourly loading data and LIFO stack information, we construct detailed models to forecast future asset constraints under Active Network Management (ANM) and Load Management Scheme (LMS) conditions. We simulate solar, wind, and battery energy storage system (BESS) generation scenarios to determine the curtailment levels across different periods.
  3. Further Analysis – Beyond the basic analysis, we offer a range of options such as sensitivity analyses on Future Energy Scenarios (FES) scenarios and Last in, First Out (LIFO) stack scenarios, Monte Carlo analyses and others approaches, tailored to the needs of our clients and their projects. 

Our curtailment analysis is not just about predicting constraints; it is about empowering our clients with the knowledge to navigate and mitigate such challenges. Our findings are meticulously documented, presenting clear, data-driven insights that are critical for strategic decision-making.