Navigating Grid Changes: How Blake Clough Consulting is Helping Developers Tackle Curtailment, Technical Limits, TMO4+, and Other Changes
As the GB energy landscape continues to evolve, developers are increasingly faced with uncertainty due to upcoming grid changes. The introduction of TMO4+, Technical Limits, the Transmission Works Review, the two-step process, and other developments are expected to significantly impact project connection timelines, underlying processes, and curtailment. With so much in flux, developers must navigate these changes carefully to avoid potential setbacks. (We’ll explore the impact of accelerated storage connections in a future post!)
Managing & Navigating Grid Changes
A key aspect of managing these changes is understanding the Last In, First Out (LIFO) queue, which determines the order in which projects are curtailed when there is congestion on the network. Projects that are connected later are typically curtailed first, making LIFO a critical component of overload-based curtailment schemes like Active Network Management (ANM) and Load Management Schemes (LMS). As new regulations and processes are implemented, changes to the LIFO queue could significantly affect project outcomes. It’s essential for developers to stay ahead of these changes and proactively address potential challenges.
Challenges When Navigating Grid Changes
At Blake Clough Consulting, we recognise the challenges that these grid changes present and have developed tools specifically designed to help developers manage curtailment concerns more effectively. Our latest tool integrates Monte Carlo probabilistic analysis with Excel, allowing developers to revisit and update curtailment estimates based on the status of other projects in the LIFO queue. This means that as projects drop out or progress, developers can easily adjust their curtailment forecasts with just a few clicks, providing greater clarity and understanding of what is happening with their projects in the future.
In the image above, you can see the cumulative probability distribution for curtailment, highlighting how our tool helps in visualising potential outcomes and understanding the risks associated with different curtailment levels. By using this approach, developers can self-update their estimates when they receive new information about the status of other projects. This allows for more informed decision-making and effective planning in the face of uncertainty.
While managing curtailment is crucial, it’s not the only challenge developers face. For those involved in Distribution projects across Great Britain, the Technical Limits scheme offers a faster connection process for hundreds of projects. However, this expedited process comes with its own complexities, such as the potential for increased curtailment and the intricate eligibility criteria, particularly with the introduction of new Grid Supply Points (GSPs), which means some projects simply have to wait for these to be built and cannot benefit from Technical Limits.
In the image above, we compare Distribution Network Operator (DNO) estimates with our own curtailment estimates under the Technical Limits scheme. This comparison highlights the importance of accurate estimation and the potential discrepancies that can arise, which is critical for making well-informed decisions.
Choose Blake Clough For Grid Connection Consultancy Services
Understanding and adapting to these grid changes requires expertise. Whether you need to assess the impact of new regulations on your project timelines and curtailment or determine eligibility under the Technical Limits scheme, Blake Clough Consulting has the tools and knowledge to support your decision-making process. Our insights can provide the clarity needed to navigate these challenges with confidence.
