What are the Major Implications of CP2030 and TMO4+?
NESO (National Energy System Operator) have released significant updates on the upcoming Connections Reform (TMO4+), aligning it with a GB-wide strategic plan (Clean Power 2030) and defining the new criteria that projects will have to meet to secure a connection date.
In this article, Blake Clough highlights the key changes that NESO have proposed, which are still under consultation, but are broadly what will be implemented in 2025. The key takeaways from this article are:
- All current and new generation and storage projects at both Transmission and Distribution level will be impacted by TMO4+. Demand connections fall outside the scope of these reforms.
- Approximately half of currently-contracted projects will effectively lose their connection offers by being moved to an indicative Gate 1 offer.
- A project’s planning consents status will be a key variable in whether it is likely to obtain a Gate 2 offer, and therefore a connection date and updated queue position.
- A project that currently holds a Technical Limits offer will not be able to connect if they do not meet Gate 2 Criteria.
TMO4+ and Gate 2 to Whole Queue
Starting in Q2 2025, the “Gate 2 to Whole Queue” process of TMO4+ will seek to prioritise projects in the existing connections queue based on their “readiness” to connect, allocating them either a Gate 2 offer that secures them an updated queue position, a Point of Connection (PoC) and a connection date or an indicative Gate 1 offer that effectively removes them from the queue. This process is expected to be finalised by the end of 2025.
To secure a Gate 2 offer, projects must meet the Gate 2 Criteria:
- “Readiness” Criteria – the project holds Land Rights or, if following the Development Consent Order (DCO) process, it has submitted a validated application for planning consent.
- “Strategic Alignment” Criteria – the project aligns to a holistic, GB-wide energy plan (Clean Power 2030) for expected generation and storage requirements.
When being assessed for Strategic Alignment, projects will be prioritised for connection based firstly on their current planning consents status (Planning Obtained, Planning Submitted or Land Rights only) and secondly on their current relative queue positions.
If a project does not meet either of the Gate 2 Criteria it will be issued a Gate 1 offer and its connection date will become indicative (losing its queue position). The project would need to apply for a Gate 2 offer in semi-annual “Application Windows” alongside new connection applications.
CP2030 and Gate 2 Strategic Alignment
The CP2030 Plan will define the amount of generation and storage capacity that is needed across GB and is due to be published at the end of 2024. This is expected to draw heavily from NESO’s CP2030 Report, published on 5th November 2024 which outlines how NESO proposes to meet the government’s Clean Power 2030 target and includes indicative capacity targets.
The CP2030 Report advises that the UK is split into 17 Transmission Zones and 14 Distribution Zones, and each Zone will have a MW capacity “bucket” for the amount of each technology type that is required. To select the projects that meet Gate 2 Strategic Alignment Criteria, the queue of projects within each Zone will be temporarily re-ordered by planning consents status (with Planning Obtained at the front) and added into these capacity buckets for the relevant technology type until the buckets are filled.
NESO have proposed two pathways; 2026-2030 and 2031-2035, known as the 2030 and 2035 pathways respectively. Different capacity buckets will exist for the two pathways, and the bucket that a projects falls into will determine its connection date. The capacity buckets for projects connecting in 2031+ are more flexible and subject to change, and are due to be further informed by NESO’s longer-term Strategic Spatial Energy Plan (SSEP) at the end of 2026.
Indicative capacity buckets have been released for each technology type at Transmission and Distribution level for both pathways, broken down by Zone for the 2030 pathway. These capacity bucket sizes will be finalised in the CP2030 Plan at the end of this year. Blake Clough are aware of some likely inaccuracies within the indicative capacity bucket sizes that have been shared currently; nevertheless they offer a good representation of the likely impact of these reforms.
Connection Date Advancement and Technical Limits
Projects with a currently-contracted connection date of 2030 or earlier will be automatically considered for the 2030 pathway; however, projects with later connection dates must request for advancement otherwise they will not be considered. This request can be submitted to NESO in early Q2 2025 alongside a project’s evidence for meeting Gate 2 Criteria. Projects being considered for the 2030 pathway that are in excess of the 2030 capacity bucket will be prioritised for allocation into the 2035 pathway instead.
If a project assigned to the 2030 pathway cannot be firm connected in 2030 or earlier, it will be assessed against the Technical Limits for 2030 and, where possible, connected earlier with a temporary restriction on network availability. This also applies to projects assigned to the 2035 pathway that initially requested advancement to pre-2030.
It should be noted that projects that currently hold Technical Limits connection offers will not be allowed to connect if they do not meet the Gate 2 Criteria, including Strategic Alignment which is based on the queue position of their original connection offer.
Additional Information on The Major Implications of CP2030 and TMO4+
Some other important details that have not been touched on in this article include:
- Projects that are currently under construction and have a pre-2026 connection date will not be impacted by these reforms.
- Gate 2 connection offers will likely contain updates to a project’s connection timescales, costs and/or cancellation liabilities.
- Long-lead time projects and those “designated” by NESO as critical are able to meet the Strategic Alignment criteria without falling into a Capacity Bucket.
- NESO’s longer-term strategy, the SSEP, is expected to adjust the capacity buckets for projects connecting in 2031+.
- NESO is considering a requirement for projects to place a security amount per MW of capacity to hold a Gate 2 offer.
If you are interested in further details on the major implications of CP2030 and TMO4+ and how this will impact your portfolio of projects and/or future development strategy, please don’t hesitate to reach out.
Blake Clough are working with our Clients to quantify the likelihood of their projects falling into either of the CP2030 pathways by applying these queue re-ordering mechanisms to the existing Transmission and Distribution queues.
