How to Secure a Gate 2 Offer – Helping Developers and Investors.
Grid connection reforms are well underway, and the energy landscape is shifting rapidly. With Target Model Options (TMO4+) and Clean Power 2030 targets driving major decisions, developers and investors face a clear choice: take early action to improve your position or risk having limited influence over the outcome.
This article outlines how developers can increase their chances of receiving a Gate 2 offer under the new framework and how Blake Clough Consulting is helping developers and investors to navigate the upcoming processes by using tailored queue modelling and in-house tools that inform critical strategic decisions today.
The Problem: Waiting Leaves You in the Hands of NESO and the DNO
With more details emerging around Clean Power 2030 and the decision-making behind how projects will be assigned to Phase 1, Phase 2, or unfortunately Gate 1 offers, the risks and opportunities linked to grid reform are becoming clearer. However, many developers are still:
- Waiting for NESO’s queue outcomes under the Gate 2 to Whole Queue (G2tWQ) assessment, or
- Waiting for the DNO to proactively contact them.
From our experience, a reactive approach in which developers wait for the results of the grid reform process and only address the improvement of planning consents of a project may limit your options.
We have already seen several examples where incorrect assumptions or outdated information held by a DNO have led to unnecessary risk. This can have unfavourable effects, as projects can then be at risk of misclassification during the upcoming reforms.
At face value, a project may appear to qualify for a Gate 2 connection, but its connection date could slip significantly, or the offer could include reinforcements that might have been avoided with earlier repositioning. In other cases, developers may assume that a project is out of scope (such as for a solar project within a seemingly oversubscribed Transmission zone), when in reality, zonal substitution could significantly improve the outlook of the project.
Additionally, some technologies (such as BESS) are unlikely to receive a Gate 2 offer unless they already have planning consents (and therefore fall under NESO’s category of “Protected” Projects). There are only a few exceptions to this, in cases where BESS technologies are deemed to fit into alternative categories such as Designated Projects, or Long Duration Energy Storage (LDES).
Acting early does not just reduce risk; it opens up options that may not be visible without an in-depth analysis.
How to Get a Gate 2 Offer: A Strategic Approach
Our work with clients has shown that early analysis can meaningfully shift project outcomes, even in cases where the initial risks appear to be high.
We recommend breaking down your approach into the following questions:
- Will your project receive a Gate 2 offer because it aligns with NESO’s Readiness and Strategic Criterions?
- If yes, will it be a good offer? Is there anything that you can do to improve it?
- If no, are there any other options? For example, co-located BESS and solar may be able to export for only the Solar portion of the project. Requesting to move the BESS element of the project ‘behind the meter’ will avoid the BESS portion of the project being assessed against the BESS queue. In this case, the project will have good standing, as long as the solar element secures a Gate 2 offer.
In some cases, projects that would otherwise be ineligible can be repositioned or restructured to qualify for a Gate 2 offer. Understanding what underpins the expected offer, and whether it can be improved, is crucial.
For example:
- Some developers may overlook the impacts of zonal substitution, which can create space in the capacity buckets for new connections, even in constrained zones.
- Projects previously considered unviable under a Technical Limits offer due to curtailment may become viable following attrition of projects in the updated connections queue.
There is also strategic value in understanding post-Gate 2 opportunities. As projects drop out or are reassigned, better points of connection or improved curtailment outcomes may open up. But these opportunities will only be taken advantage of by those monitoring the landscape closely.
The key is to approach the upcoming reforms proactively. While there is still some uncertainty around how the Gate 2 queue will ultimately be shaped, taking action now can strengthen your project’s position, reduce unnecessary costs, and help uncover opportunities that may otherwise be missed.
How to Get a Gate 2 Offer? Our Excel-Based CP2030 Analysis Tool Can Help!
To support developers and investors in navigating the reformed connections process, we have developed a dynamic Excel-based tool designed to estimate queue position, flag key risks, and identify potential advantages. Combined with our deep understanding of the upcoming reforms, we are well-positioned to tailor recommended actions to direct the next steps for your projects.
This tool is underpinned by:
- High-quality, bespoke planning consents databases
- Extensive TEC register processing (including hundreds of historic datasets)
- Embedded Register / Appendix G data to inform queue positioning at Distribution level
- Refined algorithms to match planning data to the TEC register and ECRs which are updated each month to ensure that outputs are accurate
- Adjustments for co-located project sizes to accurately reflect their impact on the queue
Users can select a project within a given zone and explore how its planning status, co-location, and consenting position affects queue alignment. The model then estimates the likely position of that project within the reformed queue, taking into account attrition and zonal substitution.
What makes this tool particularly powerful is its interactivity. Users can:
- Adjust attrition assumptions to explore conservative and optimistic scenarios, allowing developers to prepare more strategic submissions
- See how zonal substitution would affect their place in the queue
- Estimate impact on headroom availability in both the 2030 and 2035 buckets
We have already used this tool internally to support strategic reviews for developers, offering a fast and well-informed picture of how reforms are likely to affect each project. This provides quantitative insights on whether a Gate 2 offer might be received, and whether it will be competitive.
Real Outcomes: Insights and Risk Mitigation from Early Analysis
Our work over the past few months has shown how proactive analysis supported by our Excel tool and a deep understanding of the reforms can lead to more favourable outcomes, even in complex or seemingly marginal cases.
In some instances, we have helped projects that initially appeared ineligible for a Gate 2 offer to identify viable paths with which to move forward. Where a standalone BESS project appeared unlikely to qualify for a Gate 2 offer, we have advised on how co-location or consent strategies could shift eligibility. In other cases, we have supported developers in identifying projects that would likely receive a Gate 2 offer, but with unfavourable conditions, allowing them to explore alternatives (including technical and commercial improvements to their PoCs) or prepare mitigating actions.
In several areas, analysis of attrition has revealed opportunities not immediately visible in the raw queue data. For example, where solar developers anticipated being displaced at Transmission due to an apparent oversubscription of solar technology based on NESO’s initial queue estimates, our modelling of zonal substitution suggested that additional capacity may become available, particularly where protected projects are expected to attrite.
Insights we provide are not just related to queue positioning and can also help to clarify:
- Whether a project’s current connection strategy aligns with likely reform outcomes
- If an accelerated Technical Limits offer may become viable based on changing curtailment assumptions
- Whether enabling works associated with a project are still appropriate post-reform
In each case, Blake Clough’s aim has been to help developers make decisions early to improve project readiness and avoid surprises.
Next Steps: Get Ahead of Gate 2
There is still time to improve the outcome for your project. Whether this means identifying the best route to obtain a Gate 2 offer, preparing for possible challenges, or positioning yourself to take advantage of changes in the queue, you can start preparing now.
At Blake Clough Consulting, we are already supporting a wide range of clients through the upcoming connections reform process by using comprehensive reform knowledge, high-quality data, and tailored tools (such as our Excel-Based CP2030 Analysis Tool mentioned within this post) to help developers and investors stay informed and make confident decisions.
To discuss how we can support your project, or to learn more about our queue assessment tool and queue reform advisory services, please get in touch with our team.
