The Impact Connections Reform will have on Grid Connection Feasibility
In recent years, demand for new grid connections has grown significantly, as the UK and international energy markets transition toward cleaner, low-carbon generation. For each of these connections, be it a new renewable project, expanding an existing site, or planning a large demand project such as a new AI data centre, one of the first steps in the journey is a Grid Connection Feasibility Study.
These studies are crucial for identifying the practical, technical and commercial viability of connecting to the transmission or distribution network. But with major reforms sweeping across the energy sector, for example the ongoing Connections Reform, the considerations for new grid connection applications are changing quickly – and grid connection feasibility studies need to change too. Indeed, with the changes to grid connections introduced with TMO4+ and Clean Power 2030, these studies now play an even greater role; not only are they necessary for shaping new projects, but also in safeguarding the viability of existing sites.
What Does a Grid Connection Feasibility Study Involve?
The primary role of a grid connection feasibility study is to examine the technical environment surrounding a proposed connection, in order to identify at an early stage what options are available for a grid connection and, importantly, determine barriers and pathways to commercial viability. Typical areas of assessment include:
- Point of Connection (PoC) scouting – reviewing options for how a project might connect into the distribution or transmission network
- Network Capacity – estimating available capacity in the network surrounding a site, identifying headroom at substations, circuits and upstream constraints
- Transmission Network Assessment – determining available capacity in the transmission network, allowing the assessor to predict whether reinforcement works are likely to be triggered
- Costs and liabilities – estimating the likely charges to a developer for the various connection options
- Timelines, Risks and Constraints – determining risks and barriers to connection, timelines for securing and delivering a connection, and identifying whether unexpected changes could benefit or harm project timelines.
This grid connection assessment process enables developers and asset owners to make informed decisions, structure their projects effectively and reduce the likelihood of unforeseen delays or costs. It also helps developers to determine ahead of time whether or not a project will be commercially viable, without initiating the expensive connection offer process with DNOs/TOs.
Why UK Grid Connection Reforms are Changing the Landscape
The UK’s electricity system is evolving rapidly to meet net zero targets, and so too is the way connections are managed. The connections landscape is being reshaped after the UK government commissioned the new National Energy System Operator (NESO) to produce the Clean Power 2030 report (Clean Power 2030 | National Energy System Operator), which recommended a path to achieving a cleaner electricity system by 2030, and alongside this they proposed their Gate 2 to Whole Queue process (CMP435). This process is now underway, with evidence submission applications closed, but the process for applying for a grid connection is now very different, under the new CMP434 process, which will govern how new grid connection applications are made going forward. The UK grid reforms are designed to address the long queue of projects awaiting connection and to make better use of existing grid capacity.
Key elements of the reform include:
- “First Ready, First Connected” approach – projects must now align with Readiness criteria in order to retain a firm connection date.
- Accelerated pathways for “shovel-ready” projects – ready projects may move ahead of so-called “speculative” projects, or those that have stalled due to investment problems.
- Alignment with Clean Power 2030 goals – strategic prioritisation of projects that NESO have determined through their methodology to contribute to decarbonisation and security of supply.
- Gate-based assessments – connection offers are now defined in two categories, Gate 1 which covers early, less-firm offers and Gate 2 offers which align with strategic and readiness criteria. Importantly, existing connection offers can now be downgraded into Gate 1 offers and effectively removed from the queue
Other reforms will also affect the feasibility of grid connections, including changes to connection charging, and the rollout of flexible connection arrangements at distribution level. Feasibility studies must now consider these developments to identify new opportunities and avoid emerging pitfalls.
The Importance of Reform-Aware Feasibility Assessments
For new projects, feasibility studies provide a realistic understanding of connection prospects in light of reforms. They can help developers identify the most viable routes to connection, anticipate changes in queue management, and design projects with the best chances of success, under evolving frameworks.
For existing sites, reform-aware assessments are now even more important. They provide clarity on how connection changes might affect contracted positions, operational performance, or future expansion plans. In some cases, they may identify risks to revenue streams or highlight opportunities to improve security of connection. Crucially, they can provide developers with the tools they need to engage with DNOs/TOs to secure or improve their PoC and timelines, using the most up-to-date information.
In particular, developers require a shift of perspective. Previously, Grid Connection Feasibility Assessments have primarily aimed to identify capacity at a PoC. However, post reform, an equally important consideration is the regional and local queue, and how this queue might be expected to change, as well as strategic considerations; how well does your project fit into the nationwide strategic plans? Through a reform-aware feasibility study, often followed by a thorough CP2030 queue assessment, achieving a reasonable Grid Connection Offer is made far more likely, and with confidence on how the offer is likely to change as other projects progress.
How Energy Developers Can Respond to UK Grid Connection Changes
For developers, the shift to a readiness-based grid connection process in the UK requires a more proactive approach to planning. Firstly, projects should engage in feasibility studies at the earliest possible stage to evaluate multiple Points of Connection (PoCs) and understand how reforms could alter timelines and costs. Secondly, developers must prepare robust evidence of readiness, including planning permission and land rights, to secure or retain a firm position under a Gate 2 grid connection offer. Thirdly, it is increasingly important to engage proactively with the project throughout the process, monitoring queue attrition and further policy updates, as competitors’ delays or withdrawals can create new opportunities – but TOs and DNOs are often too busy to alert developers to these changes. Finally, developers should assess whether flexible or non-firm connections offer a faster route to market – often they are the only viable route – while balancing the curtailment risks these arrangements can bring. By combining these steps with reform-aware feasibility assessments, developers can protect their projects against uncertainty and position themselves to take advantage of opportunities created by the new connection regime.
At Blake Clough Consulting we provide bespoke feasibility studies, providing the core areas of assessment described above. Our team also has produced detailed Connections Reform tools that allow us to provide detailed feasibility assessments post-reform, including assessments of pre- and post-Gate 2 attrition, based on our CMP435 modelling and market data. We can also provide Gate 2 queues, explanations of CMP434 application processes and up-to-date assessment of expected connection timelines, based on our expertise, in-house modelling and known network upgrades.
Grid connection reform is creating new risks and new opportunities. Without a reform-aware grid feasibility study, developers risk losing their place in their queue or missing faster routes to market. At Blake Clough Consulting, we can provide the expertise and experience developers need to ensure their project makes the right move at the right time and identify pitfalls at the earliest possible opportunity.