With many questions and significant uncertainty still lingering around the Connections Reform process, it is difficult for developers and investors to know how to best navigate the upcoming changes. Since the first announcements of TMO4+ and Clean Power 2030, we have been working closely with our clients to help them understand how they can best engage with the processes and increase their chances of achieving a favourable Gate 2 offer.
This article outlines the services and tools that Blake Clough have developed in response to the ongoing reforms that are transforming the GB Grid connections landscape. The team at Blake Clough Consulting are engaging with all parts of the industry to keep on top of the latest Connections Reform (TMO4+ and CP2030) developments and supporting our clients throughout this period of change and uncertainty. We are able to assist project developers with their strategic decision-making, mitigating risks in their current portfolio and identifying the new opportunities that are available to those who are proactive.
At the core of our technical assessments lie our CP2030 connections queues, which provide an early view of the post-reform Transmission and Distribution queues and identify which projects are on track to receive a Gate 1 or Gate 2 offer across the whole of GB. These queues combine network data with third party planning data to replicate NESO’s CP2030 queue formation methodologies.
Our Core CP2030 Service: What is the likelihood of a project receiving a Gate 2 Offer?
Understanding the likelihood of receiving a Gate 2 offer is the key step in assessing the value of an existing connection offer. Understanding this, as well as its likely pathway (2030 or 2035) is essential Due Diligence for both your existing portfolio and Merger & Acquisition opportunities. It enables you to make informed decisions on which projects warrant continued investment and which do not.
Using our reformed connection queues, we can assess the likelihood of your project receiving a Gate 2 offer and predict which pathway it will enter (Phase 1 or Phase 2), as well as provide recommended actions to guide yo[LM1] u with the short-term development process. Our analysis quantifies the likely outcomes of these reforms and recommends the actions that can be taken to improve the outcomes ahead of the CMP435 evidence window which we expect to close in mid-July or later. We also provide a detailed summary of the important information related to CP2030 and the key pitfalls and opportunities that developers need to be aware of. This covers details of protections, reform mechanisms, remaining areas of uncertainty and advice for the longer-term on changes to capacity targets and the CMP434 connections process.
What Additional Assessment Can Help my Offer?
A Gate 2 offer will secure you a guaranteed ability to connect in the reformed network and actions can be taken now to improve the prospects of your project and de-risk the impact of these reforms. Following CMP435, the recently added “Pause” and publication of Existing Applications (EA) Information on the projects that have passed initial Readiness Criteria checks, there is a further opportunity to incorporate additional data into the expected outcomes for your project.
Blake Clough have developed assessments , beyond the initial queue alignment assessments we offer , to analyse how your Gate 2 offer can be improved. See our Previous blog Post for more information on How to Secure a Gate 2 Offer . Below, we discuss some of the ways that we are helping developers to increase the prospects for their projects and take advantage of other projects falling away from the queue. Our services include:
- Detailed CP2030 Opportunity Identification to pre-empt your Gate 2 connection offer and identify opportunities to improve your project’s Point of Connection (PoC), connection date and costs following the dropout of Gate 1 projects.
- Geo-mapping of the existing Transmission and Distribution queues across GB, indicating which projects will be most likely to receive a Gate 2 offer.
- Support with the preparation and submission of Gate 2 Evidence in the first CMP435 application window.
- Delivery of our CP2030 queues in any Transmission or Distribution Zone including the queue position, planning, and funding statuses of individual projects. Our Dynamic Excel enables you to update project information and adjust attrition assumptions.
Our services to support you through the process of Gate 2 and beyond are discussed in further detail below. These services are built on our deep-rooted understanding of the energy landscape and detailed knowledge of the reforms.
Detailed Post-Gate 2 Opportunity Identification
This exercise will provide an early view on the quality of the Gate 2 offer you can expect to receive and identify opportunities for improving your project’s PoC, connection timescales, and costs. It will provide you with the information required to engage with the DNOs/TOs to secure this improved connection offer, potentially saving millions in costs such as cabling, reduced capital contributions, or lower curtailment .
Our approach is to use our Zonal CP2030 queues to determine which other projects are expected to be moved to Gate 1 as well as how queues will be reordered in the local network. We then determine the likely impact of this on the works currently associated with your connection offer such as a new SGT or substation using various public data sources such as Appendix G, the LTDS and ETYS.
We will also assess opportunities for changing your PoC into network infrastructure that is closer to your project site should other projects be moved to Gate 1 or you leapfrog them in the local connections queue following the reforms. Proactive engagement with the DNO/TOs is likely to be required to realise these opportunities for the best possible connection agreement.
The CP2030 Mapping Tool: Visualising the Queue Changes
In addition to our reformed Excel Connection Queues, Blake Clough have produced a geo-map of projects listed in the Embedded Capacity Register (ECR) and the Transmission Entry Capacity Register (TEC Register). Each project location marker includes details such as the project’s capacity, technology, estimated adjusted queue position (as determined by the CP2030 connections reform) and how this position may be affected by project attrition rates. The following colour codes are used to identify high, medium, and low chances of a project receiving a Gate 2 offer:
🟢 A project will receive a Gate 2 offer due to it achieving “Protected” status, or because it fits within the zonal capacity bucket without any attrition of other projects within the queue;
🟠 When short-term attrition rates are applied to the queue, a project fits within the zonal capacity bucket and therefore may receive a Gate 2 offer;
🔴 A project does not fit within the Distribution/Transmission zonal capacity bucket and will not receive a Gate 2 offer based on the assumed attrition rates.
Using this map, you can visualise the effects of Connections Reform and identify projects which have high, medium and low chances of receiving a Gate 2 offer. This can be used to identify projects for acquisition, projects which may be best placed for changing connection points, or locations which may be oversaturated with projects. This deliverable is available per technology type and per zone.
Upcoming CMP435 Process: Evidence Submission
We can support you with gathering and submitting the necessary documentation required in the upcoming CMP435 (Gate 2 to Whole Queue) evidence submission window. We can also liaise directly with DNO/TOs to ensure your project’s’ status is accurately recorded for submission. This support will be essential to avoid any mistakes or lack of data resulting in your project being moved to Gate 1, or otherwise not progressing as quickly as you would like.
Dynamic CP2030 Queues across GB
We can provide you with our core development directly – the full reordered queue in any Transmission and Distribution Zones across GB – in the form of an excel detailing the full list of competing projects and their standing with respect to CP2030 targets.
This integrates third-party planning data with TEC Register, ECR data, and Appendix G data and can be efficiently updated as planning statuses change over time. Our queue ordering at Transmission is informed by our processing of hundreds of historical TEC Register versions back to 2015 to identify the date that projects appeared.
Our queues can be efficiently updated should the underlying data change. In addition, we offer a Dynamic Excel that updates as you change the planning statuses and capacities of individual projects and enables you to edit attrition assumptions per planning status. While our attrition assumptions are informed by both our industry experience and publicly available data, you will be able to alter assumptions for how to account for projects that fail to meet Gate 2 Readiness Criteria or other drivers of attrition.
Reinforcement Works Assessment
This assessment provides an in-depth review of the wider Transmission Reinforcement Works planned in the relevant area, assessing currently planned timelines and providing practical insights that include considerations like permitting durations. This assessment can help to identify works which may change as a result of the altered queue, and whether these changing reinforcement works will affect your portfolio.
This is particularly valuable in Scotland, where publication of more detailed Enabling Work information can inform whether projects are likely to be accelerated.
What Ongoing Support is Available Through Connections Reform?
We can offer any bespoke ongoing support to support investors and developers. This includes any variations to the assessments detailed in this blog post, workshops and/or reports to ensure you and your company are fully up-to-date with the quickly evolving reforms process.
What Are my Next Steps
Receiving a Gate 2 offer is only the first step in the Connections Reform Process. Blake Clough can offer further guidance or support with:
- CP2030 Opportunity Identification to lower your project costs and strategically improve your Gate 2 offer;
- Geo-mapping projects to visualise projects with high prospects
- Preparation and submission of Gate 2 Evidence;
- Dynamic Excels to improve your visualisation of the queue and allow you to modify attrition assumptions.
If you wish to learn whether you will receive a Gate 2 offer, what to do now that you know your project will receive a Gate 2 offer, or are looking to acquire projects which will receive a Gate 2 offer, contact us to learn about the analysis we can undertake for your portfolio.